ภัยคุกคามด้านตะวันตกกรณีพม่าย้ายเมืองหลวงและขุดอุโมงค์ประชิดชายแดนไทย ..

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ตั้งหัวข้อ  แฟนคลับ on Fri Jun 04, 2010 10:41 pm

Burma's Military Budget to Increase Significantly

At the four-monthly meeting of Burma's top generals held in Naypyidaw during the last week of May, the junta significantly increased its military budget from last year, according to sources close to the Burmese military.

A military source told The Irrawaddy on Thursday that although the amount budgeted to the military is unavailable, it is known to be much larger than last year's military budget.

“The money allocated to the military was budgeted under the heading 'Defense Budget', but there was no specific line items for separate expenses,” he said.

The military source added, however, that it is generally believed that large military equipment purchases will be made within the next six months.

In 2009, Burma signed a contract with Russia for the purchase of 20 MiG-29 jet fighters at a cost of nearly US $570 million.

Analysts believe that many of Burma's future military purchases may come from North Korea.

According to a report by UN experts obtained by The Associated Press last month, North Korea is exporting nuclear and ballistic missile technology and using multiple intermediaries, shell companies and overseas criminal networks to circumvent UN sanctions.

The UN's seven-member panel monitoring the implementation of sanctions against North Korea said its research indicates that Pyongyang is involved in banned nuclear and ballistic activities in Iran, Syria and Burma.

In November 2008, Gen Thura Shwe Mann, the regime’s No 3 ranking general, made a secret visit to North Korea and signed a memorandum of understanding, officially formalizing military cooperation between Burma and North Korea with his North Korean counterpart, Gen Kim Kyok-sik.

During his trip to Pyongyang, Shwe Mann also visited sites of secret tunnel complexes built into the sides of mountains to store and shield jet aircraft, missiles, tanks and nuclear and chemical weapons.

In addition, according to Burmese Maj Sai Thein Win, a former deputy commander of a top-secret military factory who defected and brought with him top secret documents and photographs about Burma's nuclear projects, secret underground bunkers and tunnels have been built at many locations in Burma.

Sai Thein Win, who was trained in Burma as a defense engineer and later in Russia as a missile expert, said that about 10,000 Burmese officials have been sent to Russia thus far to study military technology, including nuclear technology.

Sai Thein Win also said in a report that Burma is trying to build medium-range missiles such as SCUDs under a memorandum of understanding with North Korea. “Burma wants to have rockets and nuclear warheads. Burma wants to be a nuclear power,” Sai Thein Win said.

One reason the regime is able to increase its military budget and import expensive military equipment and technology may be its expected increase in energy revenues.

A study by the Washington-based United States Institute of Peace said that Burma's export earnings from the country's growing energy sector will double in the next five years, due mainly to oil and gas transit pipelines now being built from Burma to China. The Institute said the calculation is based on energy exports—mostly gas—accounting for at least 45 percent of the $6.6 billion earnings declared by Burmese interests in 2008.

Burma's military regime is infamous for spending a large percentage of its national budget on the military, rather than on education, health and other public services. According to Burma military experts, 40 to 60 percent of the national budget is allocated to the military.

In contrast, 0.4 percent of the national budget is spent on healthcare, while 0.5 percent is spent for education, according to a report released in 2007 by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think-tank based in London.

In other news regarding the four-monthly meeting, according to military sources there was no major military reshuffle in Naypyidaw.

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ตั้งหัวข้อ  แฟนคลับ on Fri Jun 04, 2010 10:44 pm

Burma's Nuclear Ambitions 'Threaten Regional Security'

The Burmese junta’s ambition to become a nuclear power is a threat to regional security, according to a documentary by the Norway-based Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB), which alleges that Naypyidaw is developing nuclear weapons and a missiles system with help from North Korea.

Quoting experts and defectors, the documentary, which was aired by Al Jazeera on Friday, said that if the junta achieves its goal, Burmese missiles could target neighboring countries, as well as threatening US military activities in the Indian Ocean.

Burmese army defector Maj Sai Thein Win, who is a missiles expert, said the junta is constructing nuclear and missiles facilities at at least two sites in Magwe and Mandalay divisions in central Burma.

“They [the junta] really want a [nuclear] bomb. That is their main objective,” said Sai Thein Win in the documentary. “They want to have rockets and nuclear warheads.”

Burma's relationship with North Korea is expected to be a hot topic at the 9th Asian Security Summit, also known as the “Shangri-La Dialogue,” which is being held on June 4-6 in Singapore. The US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates is scheduled to attend the annual summit along with representatives from 26 countries, including Maj-Gen Aye Myint, the deputy defense minister of Burma. Gates is expected to raise the issue at the summit.

Following the latest allegations, Gates’ press secretary said the US is closely monitoring the junta’s cooperation with Pyongyang.

“We are concerned with [Burma’s] growing military ties with the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] and are following it closely to ensure that the multiple UNSCRs [UN Security Council Resolutions] are enforced,” Press Secretary Geoff Morrell reportedly told Agence France-Presse by e-mail. The Security Council resolutions 1718 and 1874 ban all North Korean arms exports.

However, Burmese Minister of Science and Technology U Thaung told a US delegation led by Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell that while acknowledging that the Burmese government had publicly announced its agreement to comply with UN Security Council resolutions, it also has “the duty to maintain and protect national sovereignty.”

Sai Thein Win said the secret project sites for the junta’s weapons are in Myaing, a town in Magwe Division, and Pyin Oo Lwin, also known as Maymyo, which is in Mandalay Division. The projects are under the command of the Directorate of Defense Service Science and Technology Research Center, but also involves U Thaung's Ministry of Science and Technology, said Sai Thein Winn.

Bases on statements from the defector, Robert Kelley, a former director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told the DVB: “Our analysis leads to only one conclusion: this technology is only for nuclear weapons, and not civilian use or nuclear power.”

Sai Thein Win told DVB that two companies in Singapore with German connections sold machinery to Burma’s Department of Technical and Vocational Education, which covers any missiles programs in the country.

Photos which were brought to Thailand by Sai Thein Win show German technicians working at the junta’s sites and even some officials from the Burmese embassy in Germany visiting a machinery-producing factory.

Kelley said in his analysis that although the German machinery was “very expensive and capable, they were sold without all of the accessories to make the ... parts required for many missile and nuclear applications.”

The DVB documentary adds to the growing evidence over the junta’s development of nuclear technology, in particular to a 2009 report by Australian Desmond Ball.

Quoting Burmese defectors, Ball said the Burmese armed forces established a “nuclear battalion” in 2000 whose operational base includes an underground complex in the mountains southwest of Naung Laing, near Pyin Oo Lwin, where the regime is reportedly constructing a nuclear reactor.

With North Korea's aid, the reactor in Naung Laing could be completed around 2012, and Burma could develop its first deliverable nuclear weapons by 2020, he said in the report.

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ตั้งหัวข้อ  แฟนคลับ on Fri Jun 04, 2010 10:47 pm

Evidence Points to Burma's Nuclear Weapons 'Intent'

BANGKOK—There are regional and international security implications arising out of fresh evidence that Burma is seeking nuclear weapons and is in breach of a UN arms embargo on North Korea.

Referencing the nuclear issue, US Sen. Jim Webb on Thursday canceled his scheduled trip to Burma.

“It would be inappropriate and counter-productive for me to go at this time,” Webb told journalists at a Thursday press conference in Bangkok. While the substance of the nuclear issue and the potential breach of UN Security Council Resolution 1874 remain to be clarified, Webb said, “There is enough for now in these two allegations, which need to be resolved,” before he could reconsider going to Burma.

While allegations about a junta nuclear weapons program have emerged in the past, the latest reports are backed by documentation and photographs supplied by Burmese army defector Maj Sai Thein Win. A news documentary about the issue ran on Al-Jazeera today and is based on work carried out by the Democratic Voice of Burma news agency. Sai Thein Win had to flee Burma after superiors suspected that information about missile-building and uranium enrichment programs were being leaked. He says “that they really want to build a bomb, they want rockets and nuclear warheads.”

American nuclear scientist Robert Kelley, a former director in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the international nuclear watchdog, said he spent months examining the material supplied by Sai Thein Win and concluded that the projects outlined in the material are “useful only for weapons.”

In an overview published on the DVB website, Kelley said: “The total picture is very compelling. Burma is trying to build pieces of a nuclear program, specifically a nuclear reactor to make plutonium and a uranium enrichment program. Burma has a close partnership with North Korea.”

The seven-member UN panel monitoring the implementation of sanctions against North Korea said in a report last week that Pyongyang is involved in banned nuclear and ballistic activities in Iran, Syria and Burma.

After an early May visit to Burma, US assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs Kurt Campbell, said that the junta leadership had agree to abide by UN Security Council Resolution 1874, but that "recent developments" called into question its commitment. He said he sought the junta's agreement to "a transparent process to assure the international community that Burma is abiding by its international commitments."

"Without such a process, the United States maintains the right to take independent action within the relevant frameworks established by the international community," he said.

Whether or not the Burmese regime has the know-how to actually realize its apparent nuclear ambitions is another issue. According to Kelley, “Nothing we have seen suggests Burma will be successful with the materials and component we have seen.”

Speaking to Al-Jazeera, other nuclear experts such as John Isaacs, who is executive director of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, said that there is not yet “actual proof” of what the regime is trying to do.

However, the documentation assessed by Kelley suggest intent on the part of the junta. The regime has not signed the IAEA's Additional Protocol, meaning that the agency has not power to set up an inspection of Burma's nuclear facilities under the existing mechanism known as the Small Quantities Protocol.

The hour-long Al-Jazeera/DVB report gave details of a nationwide labyrinth of underground tunnels, believed to be shelters for the military in the event of an attack from outside or demonstrations at home. The total cost of the tunnels, built in collaboration with North Korean military advisers, is estimated in the range of US $3 billion.

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ตั้งหัวข้อ  แฟนคลับ on Fri Jun 04, 2010 10:48 pm

Reflecting on the documentation and photographs illustrating the extent of the tunneling, long-time Burma watcher and author Bertil Linter said, “I have never seen anything like this come out of Burma before.”

Webb believes that the US should maintain its policy of engagement with the junta, even as the new allegations come across as a slap in the face for the Obama administration, which has also sought to promote global nuclear non-proliferation The UN recently wrapped-up a four-week Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference, a process largely driven and led by the US. It was attended by 189 countries including representatives from the junta's UN embassy in New York.

Webb's stillborn proposed visit to Burma comes as the junta gets ready for elections scheduled some time this year, which Webb believes will help Burma make a transition toward being “ a more open society.”

However, after his recent visit to Burma, during which he met with Suu Kyi, Campbell said, "What we have seen to date leads us to believe that [upcoming] elections will lack international legitimacy." Asked on Thursday whether or not he would have met with Suu Kyi or the National League for Democracy, if he had gone ahead with the visit, Webb said that there are other opposition parties that he could talk to, adding that “the NLD has ceased to exist.”

Webb arrived in Thailand after visiting South Korea, where tensions are high after the sinking of a South Korean naval ship in March by a North Korean torpedo. Forty-six South Korean sailors were killed in the attack.

Speaking on Friday at the Shangri-La dialogue, a gathering of defense and security officials and experts in Singapore, South Korean President Lee Myung Bak said that because of “the graveness of the North Korean nuclear issue and the Cheonan incident,” the international community needs “to respond firmly to the North's threats to peace and stability of the Korean peninsula and Northeast Asia." A North Korean envoy said in Geneva on Thursday that war could erupt at any time on the Korean peninsula, blaming what Pyongyang believes to be belligerence on the part of South Korea.

In Bangkok, Webb urged China to press North Korea to “come clean” about its role in the sinking of the Cheonan. Lee said, "The Cheonan incident in particular requires the North to admit to its wrongdoing and promise that similar incidents will not be repeated."

However China has remained non-committal despite South Korean and US pressure for it to respond by condemning Pyongyang. "We need to dispel the impact of the Cheonan incident, gradually ease tension and especially avoid a clash," Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said last week.

Webb said China should do more to persuade countries such as North Korea and Burma to reform, adding that “it is to China's advantage that these countries remain closed off.” Webb added that China's growing economic clout means that it needs to take on a more responsible role in international affairs. Webb denied that he was advocating a US confrontation with China, whose premier has just concluded a two-day visit to Burma where he discussed trade and investment issues, as well as Burma's forthcoming elections and internal ethnic politics.

During the Al-Jazeera report, defectors from the junta said that gas and oil revenue from the Yadana field has given the junta the financial resources necessary to increase military spending. The income available to the ruling generals is set to increase dramatically in the coming years, as the much larger Shwe Gas field comes on stream.

According the Shwe Gas Movement website, “Burma’s military regime would stand to gain $24 billion over the 20-year contract, or $1.2 billion per year,” from the Shwe field, from which gas will be piped to China. A joint Indian-South Korean consortium is involved in the Shwe project.

The Yadana field has generated an estimated $7.5 billion in sales to Thailand, but if the junta is using this money to develop missiles and enrich uranium, it could mark the beginning of a regional arms race, according to author Linter.

Other defectors interviewed for the report said that the junta wants to develop missiles with a 3,000 to 4,000 kilometer range, possibly even able to reach the US military base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.

Countries closer to Burma might have more reason to be worried however. “Thailand and India will have to counter this,” he said, adding that “this will definitely be seen as a threat in Thailand.”

The Irrawaddy

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ตั้งหัวข้อ  sunny on Sun Jun 13, 2010 9:04 am

ครอบครัวทหารพม่าเผยความลับนิวเคลียร์ ถูกรัฐบาลสอบ – สั่งห้ามออกพื้นที่

รัฐบาลทหารพม่าส่งเจ้าหน้าที่หลายหน่วยงาน เข้าเมืองจ๊อกแม รัฐฉาน ติดตามสอบสวนครอบครัวนายทหารแปรพักตร์เผยความลับโครงการนิวเคลียร์ ขณะที่ญาติถูกสั่งห้ามเดินทางออกนอกพื้นที่ พร้อมให้เรียกบุตรหลานอยู่ต่างถิ่นกลับภูมิลำเนา

แหล่งข่าวในรัฐฉานรายงานว่า หลังพ.ต.จายเต็งวิน ผู้เกี่ยวข้องโครงการอาวุธลับของรัฐบาลทหารพม่า หนีไปแปรพักตร์อยู่ในต่างประเทศ เปิดเผยข้อมูลเกี่ยวกับโครงการพัฒนาอาวุธนิวเคลียร์ของรัฐบาล จนเป็นข่าวโด่งดังไปทั่วโลก ได้มีเจ้าหน้าที่ทหาร ตำรวจ และหน่วยสืบราชการลับของรัฐบาลทหารพม่าไปเคลื่อนไหวในเมืองจ๊อกแม รัฐฉานภาคเหนือ บ้านเกิดของพ.ต.จายเต็งวิน เป็นจำนวนมาก

โดยเมื่อเร็วๆ นี้ เจ้าหน้าที่ได้เข้าไปสอบสวนคนในครอบครัวของพ.ต.จายเต็งวิน ถึงบ้าน โดยได้สอบถามผู้เป็นแม่ว่า พ.ต.จายเต็งวิน ได้มีการติดต่อกับครอบครัวบ้างหรือไม่ แต่อย่างไรก็ตาม ยังไม่มีญาติของ พ.ต.จายเต็งวิน คนใดถูกจับกุม

แหล่งข่าวเผยอีกว่า เจ้าหน้าที่รัฐบาลทหารพม่าได้มีคำสั่งห้ามไม่ให้ญาติพี่น้องของพ.ต.จายเต็งวิน เดินทางออกนอกพื้นที่ ขณะที่พี่ชายของพ.ต.จายเต็งวิน ซึ่งเปิดร้านจำหน่ายหนังสืออยู่ที่เมืองจ๊อกแม ได้ถูกสอบสวนและไม่ได้รับอนุญาตออกนอกพื้นที่ ขณะที่เขากำลังจะเดินทางไปจ่ายค่าหนังสือที่เมืองมัณฑะเลย์

นอกจากนี้ ทางเจ้าหน้าที่ยังได้มีคำสั่งให้ญาติพ.ต.จายเต็งวิน ที่มีบุตรหลานทั้งที่กำลังศึกษาอยู่ที่เมืองมัณฑะเลย์ และทำงานอยู่ที่อื่นให้เดินทางกลับภูมิลำเนา ที่เมืองจ๊อกแม ด้วย

ล่าสุด เช้าวันนี้ (9 มิ.ย.) มีรายงานว่า เจ้าหน้าที่ได้เข้าทำการตรวจสอบร้านบริการอินเตอร์เน็ต 2 แห่ง ในเมืองจ๊อกแม โดยตรวจสอบการเข้าถึงเว็บไซท์ต่างๆ ของผู้ใช้บริการ ขณะที่ผู้ใช้บริการอินเตอร์รายหนึ่งบอกว่า ไม่เคยมีเจ้าหน้าที่เข้าตรวจค้นร้านอินเตอร์เน็ตในเมืองจ๊อกแม เช่นนี้มาก่อน

มีรายงานด้วยว่า ข่าวการเปิดเผยข้อมูลลับโครงการอาวุธนิวเคลียร์ของพ.ต.จายเต็งวิน ถูกพูดคุยกันอย่างหนาหูทั่วในรัฐฉานภาคเหนือ ซึ่งหลายคนถึงกับตะลึงกับกระแสข่าวที่เกิดขึ้น ขณะที่มีประชาชนหลายคน รวมถึงเจ้าหน้าที่พม่าในท้องที่บางคน ได้กล่าวชื่นชมพ.ต.จายเต็งวิน ว่าเป็นผู้มีความกล้าหาญน่ายกย่องยิ่ง

พ.ต.จายเต็งวิน เป็นชาวไทใหญ่ มีภูมิลำเนาอยู่ที่เมืองจ๊อกแม รัฐฉานภาคเหนือ เกิดเมื่อวันที่ 20 ก.พ. ค.ศ. 1976 เป็นบุตรคนที่ 4 ของครอบครัวนายตานมิ้น นางมอนส่า จบการศึกษาระดับมัธยมปลาย (ชั้นสิบ) เมื่อปี ค.ศ. 1993 จากนั้น ได้เข้ารับการศึกษาต่อวิทยาลัยเทคนิคป้องกันชาติ Defense Service Technical Academy (DSTA) ก่อนจะถูกส่งตัวไปศึกษาเกี่ยวกับขีปนาวุธที่ประเทศรัสเซีย นาน 5 ปี

พ.ต.จายเต็งวิน รับราชการอยู่ในกองทัพพม่านาน 15 ปี ก่อนจะตัดสินใจหนีออกนอกประเทศเมื่อเดือนกุมภาพันธ์ ที่ผ่านมา โดยได้เปิดเผยข้อมูลหลักฐาน ทั้งเอกสารและภาพถ่ายเกี่ยวกับโครงการพัฒนาอาวุธนิวเคลียร์ของรัฐบาลทหารพม่า ซึ่งสำนักข่าว DVB และสำนักข่าวอัลจาซีรา ได้รายงานเป็นข่าวดังไปทั่วโลก โดยก่อนหนีออกนอกประเทศ พ.ต.จายเต็งวิน มีตำแหน่งเป็นรอง ผู้อำนวยการโรงงานผลิตอาวุธสำคัญ ที่เมืองเหมี่ยง จังหวัดปะโคกกู่ ภาคมะโกย

_________________
ท้องทะเลและมหาสมุทร ไม่เคยปราศจากคลื่นฉันใด
มนุษย์อยู่ร่วมในสังคมเดียวกัน โดยความคิดเห็นที่แตกต่างกัน ย่อมสร้างผลกระทบต่อสังคมได้ฉันนั้น

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ตั้งหัวข้อ  hacksecrets on Wed Jun 16, 2010 7:25 am

Burma's Nuclear Ambiguity

Burma's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has bluntly rebuffed the fresh evidence aired by Al Jazeera that accuses the country of harboring a secret deal with North Korea to attain nuclear weaponry.

The statement, which appeared in the state-run New Light of Myanmar on June 12, said the material in the documentary was a series of “groundless allegations” originating from “fallacious information ... based on a single source of some deserters, fugitives and exiles.”

However, with regard to the allegations that the military generals were pursuing advanced missile technology and nuclear power, and were working on a labyrinth of secret tunnels and bunkers underneath the capital Naypyidaw, the statement remained silent.

The muted statement was in response to a documentary film which, after five years of research, was produced by Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB), an exiled Burmese news agency based in Norway.

Much of the evidence in the documentary was based on the testimony of a deserting commander, ex-Maj Sai Thein Win, who smuggled documents and texts out of the country.

In the Burmese press, Sai Thein Win is portrayed as a liar and referred to as “just a captain.” The state-run press also said he “failed a PhD entrance examination.”

It was an ineffective attempt by the regime to convince the world that the evidence presented was false and that the military defector lacked credibility. Few observers were surprised by Naypyidaw's denials. What did raise eyebrows, however, were the allegations in the film that the junta neither confirmed nor denied.

The latest report to the UN Security Council (UNSC) from the Panel of Experts on North Korea concluded that the Kim Jong-il government has been exporting nuclear and ballistic missile technology to countries such as Burma, Syria and Iran with the aid of front companies around the world.

North Korea was subjected to UNSC sanctions in 2006 and 2009—resolutions 1718 and 1874—which restrict the country from arms deals, as well as from trading in technology that could be used for nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction.

Experts say the technologies of developing nuclear warheads and short-, middle- and long-range missiles are two faces of the same coin. The combination of possessing these two technologies will change a nation into a nuclear power, they say.

Burma, as a member of the United Nations, is responsible to submit a report on how the country has implemented UNSC Resolution 1874. However, like 110 other countries, it has failed to do so.

Burma has said that, as a soveign state, it has the right to establish diplomatic relations with any country it chooses. However, the junta has forgotten that the international community requires its members to show transpency and accountability.

To clear the doubts and suspicions of the international community, the Burmese junta should invite the International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect the secret sites identified in the DVB documentary. Otherwise,the junta's statement just adds more fuel to the fire.

_________________
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ตั้งหัวข้อ  sunny on Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:11 pm

Burma’s Nuclear Ambitions Could Divert International Focus

Rumors about a secret nuclear program in Burma have been circulating for years. They were so persistent it seemed likely there was something behind them, but there was no evidence to back the claims. Some individuals published exaggerated and unsubstantiated claims, which had the opposite effect they had intended, making observers more sceptical, believing the claims were politically motivated.

However, in recent months there have been a series of reports from defectors claiming Burma does have nuclear ambitions. The latest, in a documentary made by the Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB), and broadcast on Al Jazeera, have gained international attention. The reports even led American Senator Jim Webb to cancel a visit which he had planned to use as a launchpad for persuading the US to adopt a policy of appeasement towards the war criminals ruling Burma.

The documentary has detailed photographic evidence which has been verified by experts. Burma’s generals may still be a long way from developing weapons, but it appears that at the very least, the intention is there.

Burmese exiles and others around the world who support Burma’s democracy movement have jumped on this news, hoping that this is what it will finally take to get the international community to take action. Here is yet more evidence, they say, that the dictatorship is a threat to international peace and security, and of how they misuse the country’s resources while the population slips deeper into poverty. Surely now the international community will finally wake up and pay attention? Can they really allow these people to remain in power?

But rather than persuade the international community to finally take action against Burma’s generals, the opposite could happen. If allegations of Burma’s nuclear program are comprehensively proved, then the focus of the international community is likely to move away from human rights and democratization, and onto an agenda of nuclear disarmament that could include economic and political ‘carrots’ that will entrench the dictatorship.

One example of how international focus can be diverted by a dictator's nuclear ambitions is Iran. Human Rights Watch has described the country as a ‘human rights disaster.’ Many of the human rights abuses committed by the government will be familiar to people from Burma, even if they are not on the same scale: the detention and torture of political activists; the suppression of free speech including jailing of journalists; the use of sexual violence; and the repression of ethnic minorities. But how much attention is paid to these human rights abuses in Iran by the UN Security Council and international community?

There is also evidence that Iran funds and arms groups in neighboring countries, which means the Security Council could intervene. There have been six Security Council resolutions and one Presidential Statement on Iran. None are on human rights.

"While the international community has focused on Iran's nuclear ambitions, Tehran has been methodically crushing all forms of dissent inside the country," said Joe Stork, the deputy Middle East director at Human Rights Watch. "Journalists, lawyers and civil society activists who used to speak to foreign media and human rights groups are increasingly reluctant, fearing phone and internet surveillance."

The international community’s approach to Iran fails to give much hope for those wanting action on Burma. The approach to North Korea leaves even less hope.

North Korea’s record on human rights is even worse than Burma’s. There are more than 200,000 political prisoners, and in the 1990s the dictatorship allowed around 1 million people to die from famine. Like Burma, North Korea qualifies for UN Security Council attention as a non-traditional threat to the peace.

There have been four UN Security Council resolutions on North Korea. None are on its human rights record. The entire focus has been on persuading North Korea to drop its weapons program. The USA and international community were even prepared to fund and build ‘proliferation proof’ nuclear reactors for North Korea, providing the dictatorship with tens of millions of dollars for this purpose.

In 2007, as part of another deal to try to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear program, the US released $20 million in frozen banks accounts of North Korea’s corrupt and brutal rulers. Human rights just were not a factor.

The lesson from Iran and North Korea is that human rights takes second place to stopping nuclear proliferation. Another lesson is that even when a nuclear program is involved, China and Russia are still likely to block effective economic sanctions.

Doubtless, Burma’s dictators would be delighted if international attention moved away from their human rights record.

Already some speculate that a factor in US engagement with Burma has been its growing relationship with North Korea, and their trade in arms and other technologies.

If concrete evidence of Burma’s nuclear program was discovered, Burma might, just might, finally face the kind of effective financial sanctions we have asked for on human rights grounds for so long. But based on precedent it is also possible that they could be charmed, wooed and bribed, and significant concessions made to persuade them to abandon the program.

Burma’s generals are brutal, but they are not stupid. A nuclear program could be their ticket to relaxing international pressure for democratic reform and normalising international relations. The exact opposite of what so many have been hoping will come out of recent revelations.

Mark Farmaner is Director of Burma Campaign UK.

_________________
ท้องทะเลและมหาสมุทร ไม่เคยปราศจากคลื่นฉันใด
มนุษย์อยู่ร่วมในสังคมเดียวกัน โดยความคิดเห็นที่แตกต่างกัน ย่อมสร้างผลกระทบต่อสังคมได้ฉันนั้น

sunny

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Re: ภัยคุกคามด้านตะวันตกกรณีพม่าย้ายเมืองหลวงและขุดอุโมงค์ประชิดชายแดนไทย ..

ตั้งหัวข้อ  hacksecret on Thu Jul 15, 2010 11:16 am

ภัยคุกคามด้านตะวันตกกรณีพม่าย้ายเมืองหลวงและขุดอุโมงค์ประชิดชายแดนไทย ..

sunny พิมพ์ว่า:อุโมงค์ดังกล่าวมีคุณลักษณะพิเศษดังนี้ คือ
1) อุโมงค์ขนาดใหญ่สำหรับยานยนต์วิ่งผ่านได้
2) มีการระบายอากาศอย่างดี
3) มีระบบไฟฟ้าเอกเทศ (ผลิตไฟฟ้าโดยเตาปฏิกรณ์ขนาดเล็ก 10 MWe)
4) มีการเชื่อมต่อกันด้วยสายไฟ Fiber-Opitc ติดต่อสื่อสารด้วย Internet ความเร็วสูง
5) อุโมงค์ขนาดใหญ่แต่ละแห่งบรรจุคนได้ ประมาณ 600 คน พร้อมเสบียงสัมภาระอยู่ได้นานหลายเดือน




http://khunnamob.hostignition.com/backup/nonlaw/nonlaw.7forum.net/forum-f1/topic-t280-25.htm








http://www.ryt9.com/s/prg/195452/
อิริเดียม เซ็นสัญญา กว่า 200 ราย ให้บริการครอบคลุมทั่วโลก



http://www.thairath.co.th/offline.php?section=hotnews&content=123324

ดาวเทียมชนกันเละ1ตันของรัสเซีย [13 ก.พ. 52 - 04:33]

สำนักข่าวต่างประเทศ ทั้งเอพี เอเอฟพี และรอยเตอร์ รายงานเมื่อ 12 ก.พ.

ถึงเหตุการณ์ดาวเทียมสื่อสารของรัสเซีย ซึ่งมีน้ำหนักประมาณ 1 ตัน และถูกปล่อย
ขึ้นสู่อวกาศตั้งแต่ปี 2536 หลุดออกนอกวงโคจร ไปปะทะกับ ดาวเทียมสื่อสาร
“อิริเดียม” น้ำหนักกว่า 560 กก. ของบริษัทอิริเดียม โฮลดิงส์ แอลแอลซี.
ซึ่งเป็นบริษัทเอกชนของสหรัฐฯกลางห้วงอวกาศ บริเวณเหนือเขตแคว้นไซบีเรีย
ของรัสเซีย ประมาณ 804 กม. เมื่อวันที่ 10 ก.พ. โดยสำนักข่าวต่างประเทศ
ระบุว่าได้ข้อมูลเหตุการณ์มาจากองค์การอวกาศแห่งชาติสหรัฐฯ หรือนาซา
และเหตุการณ์ดาวเทียมชนกันครั้งนี้ เป็นอุบัติเหตุทางจราจรอวกาศ
ที่รุนแรงครั้งแรกของโลก อาจต้องใช้เวลาในการประเมินค่าความเสียหาย
ไม่ต่ำกว่า 1 สัปดาห์ แต่คาดว่าไม่เป็นอันตรายต่อปฏิบัติการของ
เจ้าหน้าที่สถานีอวกาศนานาชาติ
(ไอเอสเอส)

http://911review.org/brad.com/Iridium/IRIDIUM.html

What Is Iridium?

Originally the company was Iridium, Inc., formed in June 1991
as a wholly-owned subsidiary of Motorola. In mid 1993,
positions were sold to US and foreign investors on a private
placement basis. In July 1996 Iridium LLC (limited liability corporation)
was formed and Iridium, Inc. was merged into the LLC.

The partners in Iridium LLC are big companies you have heard
something about before; Motorola, Lockheed-Martin, Loral, Sprint,
Raytheon, Hughes and others. These partner companies apparently
bought their stock positions in this enterprise for the stock par value
of $0.01 per share. Motorola appears to be the largest participant
at 18-25% ownership. The intent of Iridium LLC was to put
a huge array of polar satellites in low earth orbits.

Hopefully, you did not own the publicly traded stock in Iridium
World Communications, Ltd. - at least not during the crash period.
Why, then, should you be at all concerned with this.
Consider the following:

1. The consortium successfully deployed the satellite constellations.
By the way,state-of-the-art satellites capable of processing billions
of bytes per second (yes, billions with a "B").

2. A significant chunk of the bill was paid by unsuspecting
stock market investors.

3. The rocket guidance technology was illegally delivered
to China with help from our White House.
Remember
when Loral, and it s CEO Bernard Schwartz, first came under fire
for this delivery, you were told that it was simply to be used for
a little light weight telephone communications system so, don t get excited.
China used the technology along with the MIRV capabilities

when they launched satellites for Iridium. Russia launched some also.

The same guidance technology can now be used by both to
deliver rockets to the USA and they can deliver multiple warheads
using the MIRV technology!

http://www.nti.org/db/China/wwhmdat.htm
"China has had the the technical capability to develop multiple RV payloads
for twenty years. If China needed a multiple RV capability in the near term,
Beijing could use a DF-31 type RV to develop and deploy a simple MRV or
MIRV for the DF-5 in a few years. MIRVing a future mobile missile would be
years away." [Foreign Missile Developments and Ballistic Missile Threat to
the United States Through 2015
, The National Intelligence Council,
Washington, DC, September 1999, p. 11.]

In June and July of 2001 China reportedly conducted three nuclear related tests
at Lop Nor. These tests were followed by a similar "event" in November.
These could have been part of China's effort to develop smaller warheads,
possibly for a MIRV capability.
None of the "events" produced
a "detectable nuclear yield or blast." Preparations were spotted by
US intelligence imagery.

[Bill Gerts and Rowan Scarborough, "Inside the Ring,"
Washington Times,
7 December 2001.]

http://www.cdi.org/PDFs/IndiaMIRV.pdf

Are MIRVs and Satellite Integration and Dispensation Mutually Inclusive?

An Analysis of India’s Capabilities April 10, 2008 Kartik Bommakanti

Despite some differences, integration of satellites and their orbital dispensation,
and integration of multiple warheads and their delivery vehicles are often treated
as though they are identical processes. This paper first briefly looks at the extent
to which satellite integration and dispensing capabilities assisted in the development
of Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology
in the United States. It then will demonstrate that concerns about India-U.S.
civilian space cooperation leading to India’s development of a MIRV capability
are misguided. India already possesses incipient capabilities to MIRV its missiles,
but this does not mean that it can immediately secure a full-fledged MIRV capability,
because there are a range of conditions that would affect its development of MIRV technology.
As a cautionary note, the detailed effort here is intended to outline what India is potentially
capable of doing; therefore the following analysis should not be construed as meaning that
India will or should do the things laid out.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/02/AR2007030201402.html

The Nuclear Threat From China

By Mark Helprin
Sunday, March 4, 2007

Before rejoicing over detente with Kim Jong Il, it might be useful to remember that
although agreements were reached in the past, his countrymen later built a number of
nuclear weapons and carried out a test. Also, North Korea, with a rich chemical and
biological arsenal having long ago neutralized American tactical nuclear weapons on
the Korean Peninsula, has embarked solely on a program of survival by extortion and
will gladly forfeit a power it does not need in exchange for recognition and some
essential commodities. The Asian nuclear power of which we must take account
is not North Korea but China.

The forerunners of China's government were able to defeat Chiang Kai-shek,
fight the United States to a draw in Korea and, merely by means of their country's
looming potential, help defeat America in Vietnam. This they did in chaos, poverty
and without modern arms, but with strategy bred in the bone. Since 1978,
using their extraordinary and sustained economic and technical growth to build
military capacity, the Chinese have deliberately modeled themselves on the Meiji
(who rapidly transformed feudal Japan into an industrial state able to vanquish
the Russian fleet at Tsushima).

In altering their position relative to that of the United States, the Chinese have
received generous assistance from the past two American presidents,
who have accomplished first a carefree diminution of our orders of battle and
then the incompetent deployment of what was left, in a campaign analogous to
losing a protracted struggle with Portugal. China advances and we decline because,
among other things, its vision is disciplined and clear, while ours is burdened by
fear, decadence and officials who understand neither Chinese grand strategy nor
its nuclear component.

This has led the United States unwittingly to encourage China to move toward
nuclear parity. In the next five years, as we reduce our arsenal from 10,000 strategic
warheads to 1,700, China's MIRV'd silo-based missiles and imminent generations
of MIRV'd mobile and sea-based ICBMs will easily allow a breakout from warhead
numbers now variously estimated to range from 80 to 1,800.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/military-forum/21790-russia-deploy-mirv-capable-icbm-2010-a.htmlMoscow News - Comment - Russia modernizes missiles

MOSCOW (AP) - Russia's efforts to upgrade its missile arsenals will help counter
the planned U.S. missile defense sites in Europe, a top general said Wednesday.

Russia's Strategic Missile Force chief, Col.-Gen. Nikolai Solovtsov, said the military
will commission a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile and modify
the existing missiles.

Solovtsov said that the new RS-24 missile equipped with multiple nuclear warheads
will enter service next year.

Not perhaps a tactical wepaon system will do the required job instead of getting
strategic missiles involve which invokes retaliation. The system which best fits russian
assets is due to be deployed see image for more details



Can you plz provide the link. It seems quiet a naïve idea that ICBMs be put
into service by Russians to counter relatively fragile Czech Republic anti-ballistic shield.
What do I suppose that with the coming of Obama very extreme measures against
USA & Russia will not occur for the time being as both the leaders had already expressed
more rational & flexible thinking towards eachother.


MIRV (Multiple Independent targetable Reentry Vehicle) is a collection of
many nuclear warheads carried on a single missile with the ability to independently
strike each targets over a broad area. This reduces the number of missiles needed to
hit many targets, increases the area of destruction and reduces the effectiveness of
ABM defence systems all of which make a MIRV attack deadly. Even if the new
Alaska-California system of ABM interceptors eventually works as planned to
prevent individual or small numbers of ICBM launches by so-called "rogue" nations
like North Korea or Iran, it was never designed to protect the United States against
any attack by Russia's still huge Strategic Rocket Forces, with their 2,500 nuclear weapons -
more than 10 times as many as are needed to obliterate every city in the northern hemisphere
or every U.S. town and city with a population greater than 50,000.

Neither the West Coast-Alaska ABM system nor any of the visionary "Star Wars" type
programs currently being developed at astronomical cost by the Air Force and,
to a far lesser extent, by the Army, show any possibility of defending America against
the Multiple Independently Targeted Reentry Vehicle, or MIRV, capabilities of
the Strategic Rocket Forces.

So far Russia, apart from the United States, is the only other country in the world with
a MIRV capability. And China, despite all its astonishing industrial and technological
progress, is still believed to be decades away from developing a MIRV capability of its own.


Up to now, Russia has jealously guarded its MIRV technology and refused to sell or
share it with China. But there is no doubt that Russian-Chinese strategic cooperation
is developing rapidly. And no one truly knows how far it will ultimately go.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/china/df-31.htm

http://www.acronym.org.uk/dd/dd36/36china.htm

Disarmament Diplomacy

Issue No. 36, April 1999
Chinese Nuclear Espionage Allegations & Security of US Labs

Editor's note: see lastissue, and News Review in this issue, for background,
further details and reaction.
Director of Central Intelligence (DCI) Damage Assessment

DCI Statement

Editor's note: the Director of Central Intelligence is George Tenet,
Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).


China has had the technical capability to develop a multiple independently
targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) system for its large, currently deployed ICBM
for many years, but has not done so. US information acquired by
the Chinese could help them develop a MIRV for a future mobile missile.


We do not know if US classified nuclear information acquired by the Chinese
has been passed to other countries. Having obtained more modern US nuclear
technology, the Chinese might be less concerned about sharing their older technology."





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